After the world has spent trillions of dollars trying to decarbonize in the past 10 years, it spent $ 503 billion in 2020 alone, but carbon emissions keep rising. Even if the trend slows this growth in 2020 to 2021, emissions in 2022-2023 will break all records, exceeding just over 55 billion tons per year.
According to the International Energy Agency, global electricity demand will increase by 5% and 4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, half of which will come from fossil fuels, especially new coal in developing countries. Carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector will rise to a record level in 2022, exceeding 34 billion tons.
After a 4% drop in 2020, nuclear power generation is expected to increase, but only 1% in 2021. This is also one of the important reasons why carbon emissions grew so fast during this period.
In 2020, the 7% increase in renewable energy generation will continue to grow, but it will not keep up with growing demand and will not increase by half.
Until the growth of renewable energy and nuclear energy overtakes the growth of fossil fuels, we will not make progress in solving the environmental problems that must be solved in the next three years.
With the exception of renewable energy and fully electric vehicles, all fossil fuels in the world are increasing, mainly due to economic growth in developing countries. Even the world’s coal is increasing, generating more electricity than hydroelectric, nuclear and renewable energy combined.
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Although Developed Countries Are Switching From Coal To Natural Gas, Developing Countries Consider to coal as your savior. It is not because coal is the cheapest, it is not the case. Among all energy sources, coal is only the easiest to build in poor or developing countries with little existing infrastructure. It is the easiest to transport by ship, rail or truck. Building a coal-fired power plant is straightforward. And operate on it.
Therefore, fossil fuels will continue to increase.
“Our analysis shows that short-term trends in the global electricity market are inconsistent with the zero emissions trajectory,” the IEA said.
Global emissions EIA
Although emissions from developed countries have decreased, emissions from developing countries have increased. EIA
Although there are many roadmaps to achieve net zero by 2050, there is no real prediction that this will happen. Without serious predictions, global emissions by 2050 will even be well below 30 billion tons per year. This is because the use of oil and natural gas continues to increase, not stabilizing until around 2040 and not decreasing until the second half of this century. Coal has only decreased by about 15%.
This is not the trend for a low-carbon future. In fact, the only factor that allows us to get to zero must include some of the following forms, although other aspects such as infrastructure requirements are also crucial:
Stop building new fossil fuel plants as soon as possible; Once built, it will be exposed to this fossil fuel lockdown for at least 40 years
Stop closing a perfect and safe nuclear power plant that has been renovated for 20 or 40 years
Install 3,500,000 MW of new wind turbines (12 billion kWh / year)
Install a new 1,400,000 MW nuclear reactor, especially suitable for monitoring the SMR renewable energy load (11 billion kWh / year)
Install 2,100,000 MW of new solar energy (7 billion kWh / year )
Install 1,200,000 MW of new hydroelectric / hydroelectric energy There are 4,444 safe sources of lithium, cobalt, neodymium, iron and other metals in MW of electricity generation (7 billion kWh / year), which are used to build these alternatives especially to make enough batteries for all-electric vehicles to replace oil. By 2050,
cars will have 3 billion all-electric cars, which is far from enough to reduce our oil consumption.
Facts have proved that the cost of this new low-carbon energy mix is roughly the same as that of ordinary enterprises, at US$65 trillion, compared with US$63 trillion in 30 years. It’s just that more of the total cost is the upfront capital cost, rather than the $28 trillion and $11 trillion fuel costs. This amount of renewable energy only requires more than 12 billion tons of steel (current global steel production is 1.6 billion tons per year).
The International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that by 2050, the cost of decarbonizing all sectors of the world (not just energy) will exceed US$100 trillion. In a recent McKinsey report, from now to 2050, the estimated cost of decarbonization in the industrial sector alone will be approximately US$21 trillion, but if technology and efficiency continue to improve, the cost of both may be significantly reduced.
But what really puts the core of the dream of decarbonization at risk is the lack of nuclear power. The Mochovce 3 nuclear power plant in the Slovak Republic is expected to start commercial operations this year, but the withdrawal of the Fessenheim nuclear power plant in France and the Ringhals nuclear power plant in Sweden in 2020 denies this.
With the withdrawal of 4.3 GW in Germany, 2 GW in the UK and 1 GW in Belgium before the end of 2022, nuclear power generation in 2022 may drop by 3% again, even if Olkiluoto 3 EPR starts commercial operations in Finland.
Aerial view of Diablo Canyon nuclear power
Like many nuclear power plants in the United States and some other developed countries, San Diablo Canyon… [+] MARK RALSTON / AFP / GETTY IMAGES
In the United States, the EIA predicts that by 2050 it will add 9.1 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity and another 4.7 gigawatts of installed nuclear power due to changes to improve production of the existing plant More power capacity.
However, it is estimated that by 2050 29.9 GW of nuclear power capacity will be decommissioned, especially those